Antelope Roundup Day 22

The incident began on August 2.  Gather stats through August 23:

  • Horses captured: 1,575, up from 1,491 on Day 20
  • Average take: 71.6 horses per day
  • Capture goal: 2,200
  • Removal goal: 2,200
  • Returned: 0
  • Deaths: 9, up from 6 on Day 20
  • Shipped: 1,558, up from 1,467 on Day 20

Three foals were put down on Day 21 due to pre-existing conditions, raising the death rate to 0.6%.

Foals accounted for 18.4% of the horses gathered.  Of the adults, 42.2% were male and 57.8% were female.

Body condition scores were not reported.

Day 22 ended with 8 unaccounted-for animals.

The gap between males and females continues to increase.  The observed percentages can’t be produced by a random process centered at 50% males / 50% females with n = 1,285 adults.  The expected range of variation is found with basic statistical formulas.

To date, 542 stallions have been taken from the Complex, with 743 mares.  The sex of the foals was not provided.

Other statistics:

  • AML: 789 (four HMAs involved)
  • Forage assigned to horses: 9,468 AUMs per year
  • Pre-gather population: 6,032 plus foals
  • Forage liberated to date: 18,900 AUMs per year
  • Water liberated to date: 15,750 gallons per day
  • Forage assigned to livestock: 72,946 AUMs per year (estimated)
  • Horses displaced from HMAs by livestock: 6,079 (12% of off-range holding)
  • True AML: 6,868

RELATED: Antelope Roundup Day 20.

Onaqui Deception?

When the roundup ended, the government admitted that its narrative was false.

Was it an attempt to shield the public-lands ranchers from the effects of a temporary change in the weather?

Refer to this column in today’s edition of CounterPunch.

Western Horse Watchers believes the forage allocation to livestock—19,592 AUMs per year—represents a resource assigned to the ten allotments that intersect the HMA, not the amount of that resource inside the HMA.  Some of those AUMs are outside, and, technically, off limits to wild horses.

Unfortunately, the BLM did not provide the percentages of the allotments inside the HMA, so a ‘Short End of Stick’ report is not possible.

A guesstimate of the horses displaced by livestock, and the True AML, were computed in this post about the Onaqui allotments.

The True AML represents the number of wild horses or burros that an area can support if it was managed principally for those animals, as specified in 16 USC 30.

RELATED: Onaqui Debate Simmers.

Stinkingwater Roundup Day 7

The incident began on August 15.  Gather stats through August 21:

  • Horses captured: 401, up from 364 on Day 5
  • Average take: 57.3 horses per day
  • Capture goal: 420
  • Removal goal: 390
  • Returned: 0
  • Deaths: 3, up from 2 on Day 5
  • Shipped: 398, up from 362 on Day 5

Western Horse Watchers misread the report for August 19: It said gather operations ended early, not that they were over.  The final day was August 21.

A stallion was put down on Day 6 due to blindness, lifting the death rate to 0.7%.

Foals accounted for 25.7% of the horses gathered.  Of the adults, 44.6% were male and 55.4% were female.

Body condition scores were fours and fives.

Day 7 ended with no unaccounted-for animals.

Other statistics:

  • AML: 80
  • Forage assigned to horses: 960 AUMs per year
  • Pre-gather population: 449
  • Forage liberated to date: 4,812 AUMs per year
  • Water liberated to date: 4,010 gallons per day
  • Forage assigned to livestock: 8,455 AUMs per year (estimated)
  • Horses displaced from HMA by livestock: 705
  • True AML: 785

RELATED: Stinkingwater Roundup Day 5.

Litmus Test for Advocacy Groups

How many wild horses have been displaced from the Antelope Complex, now subject to a massive roundup, by privately owned livestock?

A few dozen?  Maybe a couple hundred?  No, over 6,000.

Did your favorite advocacy group tell you that?  Why not?  Who are they protecting?

Are they telling you that the government should be getting rid of the horses with PZP, not helicopters?

If so, you might want to find a better source of information about wild horses.

Did they tell you that over 1,500 wild horses have been denied a spot on Beatys Butte HMA because of privately owned livestock?

That roughly 700 wild horses have been cheated out of a place at Stinkingwater HMA by privately owned livestock?

Did they mention that 1,400 wild horses at Sand Wash Basin HMA have been forced into off-range holding by privately owned livestock?  Do they even acknowledge that livestock graze in the HMA?

Do they know how to compute these numbers?  Do they talk about environmental assessments, resource allocations and land-use plans?  Or do they tell you there isn’t a good way to calculate the number of wild horses an area can support?

Do they distinguish between cause and effect, between upstream and downstream parts of the management process?

Did they tell you that all of the horses in off-range could be returned to the range if public-lands ranching was stopped in just a few dozen HMAs?  That the off-range pastures and corrals could be emptied three to five times over if permitted grazing was stopped on all HMAs?

If not, you might want to find another source of information about wild horses.

RELATED: Keeping Wild Horses in Check While Livestock Proliferate.

Keeping Wild Horses in Check While Livestock Proliferate

The management plan for Beatys Butte HMA allows a stocking rate of 0.6 wild horses per thousand acres at the upper end of AML.  Anything above that will degrade the land.

The management plan at Stinkingwater HMA allows 0.9 wild horses per thousand acres but anything more will degrade the range, or so we’re told.

The management plan at Sand Wash Basin HMA allows a generous 2.3 wild horses per thousand acres but anything higher is not sustainable.

The target rate across all HMAs is one wild horse per thousand acres (27,000 animals on 27 million acres).  The on-range population of 85,000 must be reduced immediately to save the land from total destruction.  The stocking rate has exceeded the limit by a factor of three!

The management plan at Beatys Butte allows a stocking rate of 6.9 cow/calf pairs per thousand acres, twelve times higher than the rate for horses, as shown in this report.

The management plan at Stinkingwater allows a stocking rate of 15.5 cow/calf pairs per thousand acres, sixteen times higher than the rate for horses, as shown in this report.

The management plan at Sand Wash Basin allows 16.2 cow/calf pairs per thousand acres, seven times higher than the rate for horses, as shown in this report.

Given that livestock usually don’t graze on entire allotments but in subsets known as pastures, the short-term rates are even higher.

Wild horses are destroying the range at stocking rates in the low single digits, but double-digit stocking rates for livestock are not?

You can’t have it both ways.

This would explain why almost 60% of the BLM grazing land in ten western states, most of it off limits to wild horses, does not meet standards for rangeland health.

Pancake Gather Plan

Antelope Roundup Day 20

The incident began on August 2.  Gather stats through August 21:

  • Horses captured: 1,491, up from 1,402 on Day 18
  • Average take: 74.6 horses per day
  • Capture goal: 2,200
  • Removal goal: 2,200
  • Returned: 0
  • Deaths: 6, no change from Day 18
  • Shipped: 1,467, up from 1,314 on Day 18

The death rate is 0.4%.

Foals accounted for 18.2% of the horses gathered.  Of the adults, 42.7% were male and 57.3% were female.

Body condition scores were not reported.

Day 20 ended with 18 unaccounted-for animals.

The gap between males and females has increased.  The observed percentages cannot be produced by a random process centered at 50% males / 50% females with n = 1,219 adults.  The range of expected variation is found with basic statistical formulas.

To date, 520 stallions have been taken from the Complex, with 699 mares.  The sex of the foals was not provided.

Other statistics:

  • AML: 789 (four HMAs involved)
  • Forage assigned to horses: 9,468 AUMs per year
  • Pre-gather population: 6,032 plus foals
  • Forage liberated to date: 17,892 AUMs per year
  • Water liberated to date: 14,910 gallons per day
  • Forage assigned to livestock: 72,946 AUMs per year (estimated)
  • Horses displaced from HMAs by livestock: 6,079 (12% of off-range holding)
  • Remark: Yes, Virginia, it’s that bad
  • True AML: 6,868

RELATED: Antelope Roundup Day 18.

Support for ‘Path Forward’ Much Greater Than You Think

The Campaign Against America’s Wild Horses is not a signatory in fact, but a signatory in principle, along with thousands of Kool-Aid drinkers across the country.

They’re working diligently to get rid of as many wild horses as possible with PZP, which helps the public-lands ranchers.

Of interest in the following video is the remark at 6:44 that there isn’t a good way to calculate the number of wild horses an area can support.

The government has already told you what resources are available and has assigned them to multiple users.

Divide the forage assigned to livestock by twelve and add the result to the AML.  That’s the True AML, the number of horses an area could support if it was managed principally for horses, as specified in the statute.

The calculation often shows that the area is not overpopulated, and has no excess horses, which undercuts their business model.

RELATED: Wild Horses Have Targets on Their Backs?

Conger Roundup Day 11

The incident began on August 11.  Gather stats through August 21:

  • Horses captured: 213, up from 188 on Day 9
  • Average take: 19.4 horses per day
  • Capture goal: 320
  • Removal goal: 296
  • Returned: 0
  • Deaths: 1, no change from Day 9
  • Shipped: 211, up from 138 on Day 9

The death rate is 0.5%.

Foals accounted for 23.0% of the horses gathered.  Of the adults, 43.9% were male and 56.1% were female.

Body condition scores were not reported.

Day 11 ended with one unaccounted-for horse.

Other statistics:

  • AML: 80
  • Forage assigned to horses: 960 AUMs per year
  • Pre-gather population: 355
  • Forage liberated to date: 2,556 AUMs per year
  • Water liberated to date: 2,130 gallons per day
  • Forage assigned to livestock: Unknown
  • Horses displaced from HMA by livestock: Unknown
  • True AML: Unknown

RELATED: Conger Roundup Day 9.

Sand Wash Horses Get Short End of Stick

The HMA covers 156,502 acres in northwest Colorado and has an AML of 362, according to Table 1 of the Final EA for resource enforcement actions therein.

The horses allowed by plan require 4,344 AUMs per year and the aimed-at stocking rate is 2.3 wild horses per thousand acres.  The average rate across all HMAs is one wild horse per thousand acres.

The HMA intersects four grazing allotments, per Table 2.1 in the EA.  The status of the allotments was discussed in the post.

The paragraph above the table explains the forage allocations inside the HMA but does not give a number for the Nipple Rim allotment, stating that roughly half of the use occurs within the HMA.

Footnote 2 in Table 2 on page 206 (in the pdf) suggests that 1,989 AUMs per year are available to the Nipple Rim permittees inside the HMA so that figure was copied into the spreadsheet.

Table 1 on page 208 provides the allotment acreage inside the HMA.  The total is very close to the acreage assigned to the horses so the HMA is probably 100% subject to permitted grazing.

June, July and August are the only months when livestock are not present.

Sand Wash Calcs 08-20-21

The total acreage and active AUMs were sourced from the Allotment Master report.

The land, when designated for livestock grazing, can produce an average of 111.4 AUMs per year per thousand acres, but when identified for wild horses, can only produce 4,344 ÷ 156,502 × 1,000 = 27.7 AUMs per year per thousand acres.

The total forage assigned to livestock inside the HMA is 16,827 AUMs per year.

Western Horse Watchers usually converts AUMs to horses and cow/calf pairs, even if the HMA is designated for burros and/or the allotments are permitted for sheep.  The resource requirements of wild horses and cow/calf pairs are said to be equivalent.

The Lang Spring permittee would have to place 363 ÷ 8 = 45 cow/calf pairs inside the HMA to graze off the allotted forage within the permitted season.  Likewise for the other permittees.

The total number of cow/calf pairs inside the HMA is 2,549, for a weighted average grazing season of 16,827 ÷ 2,549 = 6.6 months per year.

The stocking rate at Nipple Rim is 284 ÷ 16,247 × 1,000 = 17.5 cow/calf pairs per thousand acres and the overall rate is 2,549 ÷ 156,925 × 1,000 = 16.2 cow/calf pairs per thousand acres.

These figures are compared in the following charts.

Sand Wash Charts 08-20-21

The HMA is managed primarily for livestock, contrary to §1332(c) of the statute, with the horses receiving just 21% of the authorized forage, neglecting wildlife.

The forage assigned to livestock would support an additional 16,827 ÷ 12 = 1,402 horses, for a True AML of 1,764.

The pre-gather population of 896 (Table 1, page 7 in EA) is well within this range, so there are no excess horses, no overpopulation and no justification for a fertility control program.  The advocates are wrong again.

The 1,402 wild horses displaced from the HMA by privately owned livestock represent 2.8% of the 50,000 horses in off-range holding.

Although dry conditions have limited the availability food and water in the area, these circumstances are temporary but the removal is permanent.  You can have your wild horse and burro program as long as it doesn’t interfere with the grazing program.

RELATED: Sand Wash Decision Reached.

Reducing Harm to Assateague Wild Ponies?

A new program urges motorists to drive carefully on the island and “Give Wild Horses a Brake,” according to a news release by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources.

Visitors feeding the horses or otherwise encouraging them to come near campgrounds and vehicles has left them unafraid of people and cars, making them more susceptible to injury on the roads.

The greatest threat to these horses, and the #1 cause of their loss, is humans that shoot them with contraceptive darts.

Although the practice was stopped five years ago, the herd was only able to generate a 7.8% birth rate this year, barely enough to keep up with the death rate.

That should scare the crap out of anyone interested in protecting these animals.

Status of Sand Wash Allotments

Table 2.1 in the Final EA for resource enforcement actions in Sand Wash Basin HMA identifies four allotments that intersect the HMA.  Only one is fully inside.

The Allotment Master report in RAS provides the following information:

Lang Spring

  • Public acres: 3,249
  • Management status: Maintain
  • Active AUMs: 364

Nipple Rim

  • Public acres: 39,142
  • Management status: Improve
  • Active AUMs: 4,900

Sheepherder Spring

  • Public acres: 74,147
  • Management status: Improve
  • Active AUMs: 9,042

Sand Wash

  • Public acres: 69,457
  • Management status: Improve
  • Active AUMs: 7,568

Three out of four allotments do not meet standards for rangeland health.

Bad as that is, substandard conditions apply to 98.3% of the public acreage.

Our stewards of the public lands are not taking their responsibilities seriously.

Solution?  Get rid of 85% of the wild horses.

RELATED: Sand Wash Decision Reached, Allotment Categories Explained.

Stinkingwater Roundup Day 5

The incident began on August 15.  Gather stats through August 19:

  • Horses captured: 364, up from 294 on Day 3
  • Average take: 72.8 horses per day
  • Capture goal: 420
  • Removal goal: 390
  • Returned: 0
  • Deaths: 2
  • Shipped: 362, up from 292 on Day 3

Gather operations have concluded.  The death rate was 0.5%.

Foals accounted for 26.1% of the horses gathered.  Of the adults, 45.4% were male and 54.6% were female.

Body condition scores were fours and fives.

Day 5 ended with no unaccounted-for animals.

Other statistics:

  • AML: 80
  • Forage assigned to horses: 960 AUMs per year
  • Pre-gather population: 449
  • Forage liberated to date: 4,368 AUMs per year
  • Water liberated to date: 3,640 gallons per day
  • Forage assigned to livestock: 8,455 AUMs per year (estimated)
  • Horses displaced from HMA by livestock: 705
  • True AML: 785

RELATED: Stinkingwater Roundup Day 3.

Antelope Roundup Day 18

The incident began on August 2.  Gather stats through August 19:

  • Horses captured: 1,402, up from 1,244 on Day 16
  • Average take: 77.9 horses per day
  • Capture goal: 2,200
  • Removal goal: 2,200
  • Returned: 0
  • Deaths: 6, up from 5 on Day 16
  • Shipped: 1,314, up from 1,185 on Day 16

A stallion was put down on Day 18 due to a physical defect.  The death rate is 0.4%.

Foals accounted for 18.1% of the horses gathered.  Of the adults, 43.8% were male and 56.2% were female.

Body condition scores were not reported.

Day 18 ended with 82 unaccounted-for animals.

The observed percentages of males and females cannot be explained by a simple random process centered at 50% males / 50% females with n = 1,148 adults.  The sex of the foals was not provided.

Other statistics:

  • AML: 789 (four HMAs involved)
  • Forage assigned to horses: 9,468 AUMs per year
  • Pre-gather population: 6,032 plus foals
  • Forage liberated to date: 16,824 AUMs per year
  • Water liberated to date: 14,020 gallons per day
  • Forage assigned to livestock: 72,946 AUMs per year (estimated)
  • Horses displaced from HMAs by livestock: 6,079 (12% of off-range holding)
  • True AML: 6,868

RELATED: Antelope Roundup Day 16.

Conger Roundup Day 9

The incident began on August 11.  Gather stats through August 19:

  • Horses captured: 188, up from 160 on Day 7
  • Average take: 20.9 horses per day
  • Capture goal: 320
  • Removal goal: 296
  • Returned: 0
  • Deaths: 1, no change from Day 7
  • Shipped: 138, up from 124 on Day 7

The death rate is 0.5%.

Foals accounted for 23.9% of the horses gathered.  Of the adults, 42.7% were male and 57.3% were female.

Body condition scores were not reported.

Day 9 ended with 49 unaccounted-for horses.

Other statistics:

  • AML: 80
  • Forage assigned to horses: 960 AUMs per year
  • Pre-gather population: 355
  • Forage liberated to date: 2,256 AUMs per year
  • Water liberated to date: 1,880 gallons per day
  • Forage assigned to livestock: Unknown
  • Horses displaced from HMA by livestock: Unknown
  • True AML: Unknown

RELATED: Conger Roundup Day 7.