Image from a resource brief by the National Park Service, Assateague Island.

RELATED: Assateague Herd Rebounds in Latest Census.

The accident occurred when the horse ran down the dunes and into the path of the vehicle, according to a report by OBX Today.

The driver cooperated with law enforcement.

Only in selected areas, perhaps where the writer of this opinion piece lives.

In the fourth quarter of 2021, there were 13 collisions involving horses, resulting in the deaths of nine.  Locations of the accidents were not provided.

Additional fencing would stop horses from entering roadways and drivers won’t be at risk to hit them.  The horses will stay safe in the hills.

If the goal is to keep them safe in the hills, the stakeholders should be asking why they are leaving that area, not why they are being hit by cars.

This time of year, they may try to avoid the colder temperatures and lack of forage in the mountains, with elevations exceeding 6,000 feet.

The writer suggested that, among other things, the fertility control program could be part of the solution, not part of the problem.

What if the horses have fled the hills in fear of the advocates?

The stallions can’t understand why their mares aren’t bearing any fruit and the death rate of the herd is probably going up.

Perhaps their instincts have kicked in and they’re now scattering to survive.

That would explain why the Pine Nut advocates, a few miles to the south, needed a Jeep to pursue their targets.

By confining the horses to certain areas, additional fencing might make life a little easier for the Virginia Range advocates and improve the hit rate of their RDDs.

Looking ahead, collisions with foals should be minimal in 2022.  The advocates have already fixed that problem.

RELATED: Remove Advocates from Virginia Range Now!

The incident began on December 20.  Gather stats through December 31:

• Type: Planned
• Method: Helicopter
• Animals captured: 483 horses, 91 burros
• Average daily take: 40.3 horses, 7.6 burros
• Capture goal: 648 horses, 100 burros
• Removal goal: 438 horses, 100 burros
• Returned: No horses, no burros
• Deaths: 8 horses, no burros
• Shipped: 355 horses, 91 burros

Helicopters did not fly on Day 11.

No deaths were reported on Days 11 and 12.  The death rate is 1.7%.

The cumulative totals include 142 stallions, 221 mares and 120 foals.  On the burro side, 47 jacks, 30 jennies and 14 foals.

Youngsters represented 24.8% of the horses captured and 15.4% of the burros.

Of the adults, 39.1% were stallions and 60.9% were mares.  For the burros, 61.0% were jacks and 39.0% were jennies.

Body condition scores were not reported.

The location of gather activity within the WHR is not known.

Day 12 ended with 120 unaccounted-for horses and no unaccounted-for burros.

The number of horses removed to date is 483, which exceeds the goal, but the number to be returned has not been announced.

Horses removed = Horses captured – Horses returned

Mares returned to the area will be treated with GonaCon, a pesticide that may function as a sterilant.  The Day 11 report indicated that 74 mares have received the jab.

The number of burros removed is 91.

Operations are not open to public observation.

Other statistics:

• AML: 500 horses, zero burros
• Forage assigned to horses: 6,000 AUMs per year
• Pre-gather population: 736 horses, 95 burros and an unspecified number of foals
• Forage liberated to date: N/A
• Water liberated to date: N/A
• Forage assigned to livestock: None
• Animals displaced from WHR by livestock: None
• True AML: 500

RELATED: Nevada WHR Roundup Day 10.

Their remains were discovered yesterday, according to a report posted this evening by AZ Family, the CBS affiliate in Phoenix.

A woman interviewed for the story noted a pattern: “These shootings always happen in the winter months.”

The last incident was in January 2021.

RELATED: Forest Service Confirms Four Deaths In Heber Shooting Case.

The animal was killed after it was struck by three vehicles near Pahrump, NV, according to a report posted this morning by the Pahrump Valley Times.

A remote delivery device, sometimes referred to as a dart, is pushed out of a projector with compressed gas.

According to the PZP spec sheet from the Science and Conservation Center, Pneu-Darts are not pressurized and cannot discharge spontaneously or through incidental contact.

For the dart to discharge, a small weight at the rear of the device must be launched forward (through impact with a target) to fire a small gunpowder cap, which in turn sets off a larger charge, pushing the plunger forward and emptying the dart into the animal.

Thus, the RDD is similar to a rifle cartridge, where a primer ignites the propellant after it is struck by the firing pin, sending the bullet down the barrel.

Don’t worry, it’s safe, humane and relieves the mares of “the burden of pregnancy and raising young,” with benefits accruing to the public-lands ranchers.

RELATED: Putting the Montana Solution Into Practice: Projectors.

She was born in August, according to a story posted yesterday by the Maryland Coast Dispatch, and designated N2BHS-CKT by the Park Service.

Beneficiary is the Assateague Island Alliance.

The fundraising technique won’t work for the advocates at the Salt River, Virginia Range and Pine Nut Mountains.

RELATED: Assateague Name-That-Foal Contest Starts Next Week.

This advocate is rocking a Pneu-Dart X-Caliber (Gen 1) gauged projector with a timber camo finish, sometimes referred to as a darting rifle.  It has a 29″ barrel.

The device has been superseded by the Gen 2 X-Caliber projector, which features a 39″ barrel for greater range and improved accuracy.  Refer to this Pneu-Dart video.

The incident began on December 20.  Gather stats through December 29:

• Type: Planned
• Method: Helicopter
• Animals captured: 468 horses, 91 burros
• Average daily take: 46.8 horses, 9.1 burros
• Capture goal: 648 horses, 100 burros
• Removal goal: 438 horses, 100 burros
• Returned: No horses, no burros
• Deaths: 8 horses, no burros
• Shipped: 268 horses, 91 burros

Two stallions and four mares were put down on Day 9 due to pre-existing conditions, increasing the death rate to 1.7%.

The cumulative totals include 137 stallions, 214 mares and 117 foals.  On the burro side, 47 jacks, 30 jennies and 14 foals.

Youngsters represented 25.0% of the horses captured and 15.4% of the burros.

Of the adults, 39.0% were stallions and 61.0% were mares.  For the burros, 61.0% were jacks and 39.0% were jennies.

Body condition scores were not reported.

The location of gather activity within the WHR is not known.

Day 10 ended with 192 unaccounted-for horses and no unaccounted-for burros.

The number of horses removed to date is 468, which exceeds the goal, but the number to be released has not been announced.

Horses removed = Horses captured – Horses returned

Mares returned to the area will be treated with GonaCon, a pesticide that may function as a sterilant.

The number of burros removed is 91.

Operations are not open to public observation.

Other statistics:

• AML: 500 horses, zero burros
• Forage assigned to horses: 6,000 AUMs per year
• Pre-gather population: 736 horses, 95 burros and an unspecified number of foals
• Forage liberated to date: N/A
• Water liberated to date: N/A
• Forage assigned to livestock: None
• Animals displaced from WHR by livestock: None
• True AML: 500

RELATED: Nevada WHR Roundup Day 8.

That is the plan according to the BLM spokesman quoted in this end-of-year review by the Craig Press.

The HMA is now in mop-up mode, as the advocates lock in the gains for the ranchers with the Montana Solution.

RELATED: Bias in Sand Wash Reporting?

The headline at Drudge points to a story by the Las Vegas Sun.

He ran the Senate with an iron fist during the Obama years.

Conrad Burns, senator from Montana, had little to gain from the 2004 change to the WHB Act but Harry Reid, senator from Nevada, sure did.

Refer to this 2009 interview posted by Tuesday’s Horse.

The incident began on December 20.  Gather stats through December 27:

• Type: Planned
• Method: Helicopter
• Animals captured: 279 horses, 91 burros
• Average daily take: 34.9 horses, 11.4 burros
• Capture goal: 648 horses, 100 burros
• Removal goal: 438 horses, 100 burros
• Returned: No horses, no burros
• Deaths: 2 horses, no burros
• Shipped: 101 horses, 91 burros

Helicopters did not fly on Days 4, 5, 6 and 7.

Two colts were put down on Day 8 due to clubbed feet.  The wild horse death rate is 0.7%.

The cumulative totals include 87 stallions, 126 mares and 66 foals.  On the burro side, 47 jacks, 30 jennies and 14 foals.

Youngsters represented 23.7% of the horses captured and 15.4% of the burros.

Of the adults, 40.8% were stallions and 59.2% were mares.  For the burros, 61.0% were jacks and 39.0% were jennies.

Body condition scores were not reported.

The location of gather activity within the WHR is not known.

Day 8 ended with 176 unaccounted-for horses and no unaccounted-for burros.

The number of horses removed to date is 279.  Mares returned to the area will be treated with GonaCon.  The number of burros removed is 91.

Operations are not open to public observation.

Other statistics:

• AML: 500 horses, zero burros
• Forage assigned to horses: 6,000 AUMs per year
• Pre-gather population: 736 horses, 95 burros and an unspecified number of foals
• Forage liberated to date: N/A
• Water liberated to date: N/A
• Forage assigned to livestock: None
• Animals displaced from WHR by livestock: None
• True AML: 500

RELATED: Nevada WHR Roundup Day 3.

As noted yesterday, the average age of a herd subject to the Montana Solution increases with time, along with the death rate, as few if any foals are born and more horses reach the “wear out” period.

Earlier this year, the Park Service reported 27 males and 51 females on the Maryland side of Assateague Island.

In 2020, they found 21 stallions and 51 mares.

Females outnumber males by a two-to-one margin.  What’s happening to the stallions?

The area has been a test bed for wild horse fertility control since the mid 1980s.

The darting program was shut off in 2016.

The Park Service had been reporting herd demographics every two months, give or take, but the news releases stopped in November 2019.

At Theodore Roosevelt National Park with Wild Lands Wild Horses.

The fastest way to remove excess horses and shift resources back to the public-lands ranchers is by helicopter.

Darting programs can achieve the same results but over much longer periods of time.

The debate rests on the faulty notion that areas set aside for wild horses and burros should be managed primarily, if not principally, for cattle and sheep.

Helicopters can reduce wild horse populations by two thirds in just a few weeks, as seen over the summer at Onaqui Mountain and Sand Wash Basin.

A reduction of that size by PZP darting would require over 20 years, assuming a zero percent birth rate and five percent death rate.

Injuries and deaths are not uncommon in helicopter roundups but the horses usually bounce back, perhaps at a slower rate if mares returned to the range were treated with fertility control and/or the sex ratio of the herd was tilted in favor of the stallions.

There is no bouncing back with darting programs.  Injuries do occur and after five years many of the mares are sterile.  They still eat, exactly what the ranchers don’t want.

This year on Assateague Island, a paragon of wild horse management according to the advocates, the herd was only able to produce a 7.8% growth rate—five years after the darting program was shut off.  In previous years, the population declined.

So how can the advocates make their darting programs more appealing to the ranchers and bureaucrats, whose approval they seek at the expense of our wild horses?

To put their programs on par with the roundups, something must be done about the death rate.

One possibility is to couple the darting programs with the introduction of predators, which the ranchers will oppose straight away.

Another possibility is to spike their darting formulations with something that hastens illness and death, inconspicuously, of course.

Too far-fetched?  They’re ruthless.

The Pine Nut advocates recently acquired a Jeep to chase the mares as far as necessary to make sure they don’t reproduce.

The Virginia Range advocates are pumping PZP into a herd of approximately 3,200 males and females at a rate of 4,200 doses per year.

Good luck finding a youngster if you visit the Salt River.

As the advocates mull their options against a backdrop of growing support from a misinformed public, and continued skepticism of the bureaucrats and ranchers, is it reasonable to assume a constant death rate over the life of their darting programs?

A graphical model, known as the Bathtub Curve, shows failure rates of manufactured products as a function of their age.  The message of the Bathtub Curve is that, after a certain period, failure rates go up as things get older.

If everyone in the country was in their twenties, you wouldn’t find many obituaries in the newspaper.  If everyone was at least 60, that section might be a bit more active.

When a darting program is fully implemented, the average age of the herd increases, because no new foals are hitting the ground.

If the bathtub model prevails, at some point the death rate will begin to increase as more horses reach the “wear out” period.

This might help the advocates sell their programs to the bureaucrats without the need for controversial enhancements.

If you start with 1,000 horses and stop all reproduction, 950 would remain at the end of Year 1 with a 5% death rate.  In Year 2, 48 horses would die, leaving 902.  In Year 3, 45 would die and so forth.  This is the blue line in the following chart.

With no new foals, the average age of the herd will go up, so the death rate will likely increase as the program takes hold.

If you start with 1,000 horses and a 5% death rate, but the death rate increases one half percentage point every year thereafter (.005), 50 horses would die in the first year, 52 would die in the second year, 54 would die in the third year, etc.  This is the orange line in the chart.

A 50% reduction in herd size, from 1,000 to 500, instead of taking 13 years in the constant-rate scenario, only requires nine years in the rising-rate scenario.

Although darting programs may increase wild horse death rates without any added effort, they will never match the efficiency and effectiveness of helicopter roundups in shifting resources back to the public-lands ranchers.

The advocates will likely be consigned to a mopping-up role in the management process, protecting the ranchers after the fact by making sure the horses don’t bounce back.

RELATED: Darting Programs and Helicopter Roundups on Same Side of Coin.

If there’s an agenda, problems will be invented that steer public opinion toward its acceptance.

That’s the story behind man-made climate change.  Pure fiction.

The goal is not environmental protection, but massive government involvement in your life, sometimes referred to as socialism.  You need to give them more power.

So it is on western rangelands, as discussed in a column posted yesterday by the Casper Star-Tribune.

Supporters of public-lands ranching use habitat degradation to bludgeon wild horses, deflect attention from grazing and conceal the effects attributable thereto.

The goal is not to protect the birds but to secure more resources for the ranchers.

Curiously, the BLM recently announced virtual scoping sessions as it considers changes to the management plans for sage-grouse habitats.  More information can be found at the ePlanning site for the project.

A keyword search of the Rangewide Monitoring Report, posted with other project documents, yielded these results:

• Horse – No occurrences
• Horses – 1
• Livestock – 24
• Permittee – 5
• Grazing – 57
• Allotment – 13
• Allotments – 89
• Drilling – 0
• Mining – 136
• Logging – 0
• Recreation – 4

RELATED: Livestock Impede Sage-Grouse Recovery on Public Lands?