A private donor has matched the original amount, according to today’s news release.

No activity reported at the gather page for the roundup announced in November.

RELATED: Challis Wild Horses Shot.

The incident began on February 8.  Gather stats through February 10:

• Target: Horses
• Type: Planned
• Method: Helicopter
• Captured: 241, up from 120 on Day 1
• Average daily take: 80.3
• Capture goal: 376
• Removal goal: 326
• Returned: None
• Deaths: 2, up from 1 on Day 1
• Shipped: 84, up from zero on Day 1

A colt died from a broken neck on Day 3.  The death rate to 0.8%.

The cumulative total includes 115 stallions, 126 mares and no foals.

The absence of youngsters implies a negative growth rate.  The herd is getting smaller, without the help of helicopters, a result that will please the advocates.  A growth rate of 20% per year is often used by land managers to predict herd sizes.

Of the adults, 47.7% were stallions and 52.3% were mares.

Body condition scores were not reported.

The location of the trap site within the HMA was not provided.

Day 3 ended with 155 unaccounted-for animals.

With an average daily take of 80, the capture goal should be achieved in a few days.

The number of horses removed to date is 241.  Horses returned to the HMA will be treated with population suppression of unspecified type.

Other statistics:

• AML: 250
• Forage assigned to horses: 3,000 AUMs per year
• Pre-gather population: 600
• Forage liberated to date: 2,892 AUMs per year
• Water liberated to date: 2,410 gallons per day
• Forage assigned to livestock: 10,256 AUMs per year (estimated)
• Horses displaced from HMA by permitted grazing: 854
• True AML: 1,104
• Stocking rate at new AML: 4.8 wild horses per thousand public acres
• Horses displaced from HMA by drilling and mining: Ask the advocates

The HMA cannot be overpopulated with 600 wild horses, when the BLM authorizes privately owned livestock equivalent to 854 wild horses in the same area, on top of the 250 horses allowed by plan.

RELATED: Sulphur Roundup in Progress.

The contractor has captured 802 stallions, 880 mares and 217 foals as of February 9, according to figures at the gather page, with youngsters representing 11.4% of the total.

If the death rate is 5% per year, the birth rate would need to be around 25% per year to achieve a 20% growth rate, the amount commonly used by land managers to predict herd sizes.

The observed percentage of foals is not even close to 25%, so you might be tempted to say the herd is not growing at a rate of 20% per year, but technically it’s not correct.

You have to account for random variations in the sample results.

If you tossed a coin 100 times and found 42 heads, the result would be attributed to chance.  It’s not far enough away from 50, the expected number of heads, to be an indication of anything.

You could get anywhere from 35 to 65 heads in the experiment.  A result in that range provides no evidence that the process is not centered at 50% heads / 50% tails.

The expected range of variation for other cases can be computed from basic statistical formulas, where p-bar is the expected proportion and n is the sample size.

In the Pancake Complex, the hypothesized proportion (birth rate) is .25 and the sample size is 1,899.  Every horse in the sample is a foal or it is not.

Is the observed proportion, .114, far enough away from .25 to cast doubt on the assumed birth rate?

The range of variation attributable to chance, using the formula above, is .220 to .280, with p-bar = .25 and n = 1,899.

The observed proportion is outside this range, meaning that it is sufficiently far enough away from .25 to suggest that the assumed birth rate is not correct, which means the herd is probably not growing at a rate of 20% per year.

If the herd was growing at a rate of 15% per year, you expect to find around 20% foals, assuming a 5% death rate.

The expected range of variation would be .172 to .228, with p-bar = .20 and n = 1,899.

The observed proportion of .114 is outside this range also, suggesting that a birth rate is of 20% per year is not valid, along with a herd growth rate of 15% per year.

What about a growth rate of 10% per year?  The observed proportion is not consistent with that either!

The incident began on January 11.  Gather stats through February 8:

• Target: Horses
• Type: Planned
• Method: Helicopter
• Captured: 1,860, up from 1,683 on Day 26
• Average daily take: 64.1
• Capture goal: 2,060
• Removal goal: 2,030
• Returned: 18, up from 4 on Day 26
• Deaths: 20, up from 15 on Day 26
• Shipped: 1,732, up from 1,554 on Day 26

Three horses were put down on Day 27, followed by two more on Day 29, lifting the death rate to 1.1%.

Three stallions and 11 mares were returned on Day 27 to an undisclosed location.

The cumulative total includes 784 stallions, 865 mares and 211 foals.

Youngsters represented 11.3% of the horses captured, consistent with a herd growth rate of six to seven percent per year, assuming a five percent death rate.  A growth rate of 20% per year is often used by land managers to predict herd sizes.

Of the adults, 47.5% were stallions and 52.5% were mares.

Body condition scores were not reported.

The location of the trap site within the Complex was not provided.

Day 29 ended with 90 unaccounted-for animals.

With an average daily take of 64, the capture goal should be achieved this week.

The number of horses removed to date is 1,842.  Mares returned to the Complex will be treated with fertility control of unspecified type.

Other statistics:

• AML: 638 (across two HMAs, one WHT and one HA)
• Forage assigned to horses: 7,656 AUMs per year
• Pre-gather population: 3,244
• Forage liberated to date: 22,104 AUMs per year
• Water liberated to date: 18,420 gallons per day
• Forage assigned to livestock: 43,344 AUMs per year (estimated)
• Horses displaced from Complex by permitted grazing: 3,612
• True AML: 4,250
• Stocking rate at new AML: 3.5 wild horses per thousand acres
• Horses displaced from Complex by drilling and mining: Ask the advocates

RELATED: Pancake Roundup Day 26.

The incident started on February 8, according to the gather page, with 120 horses captured, none shipped and one dead.

Like Pancake, a youngster was put down on Day 1 due to a broken leg.

RELATED: Thriving Ecological Imbalance Coming to Sulphur HMA.

What will be offered as an alternate?  Bait and water traps?  The Montana Solution?

The original WHB Act was amended by Congress in 1976 to allow the use of motorized equipment, including helicopters, to capture and remove wild horses and burros from their designated habitats, which, in many cases, overlap livestock grazing allotments.

The authorizing paragraph appears in §1338a of the current statute.

RELATED: Save a Horse, Hire a Cowboy?

They were released on February 4 and 5 after receiving a second dose of GonaCon Equine, according to a BLM news release.

RELATED: Nevada WHR Mares Waiting for Second Jab.

Stop the roundups but not the removals.  Treat the symptoms, not the causes.

Alternative 1 in the Final EA for resource enforcement actions in the HMA states that the BLM will gather and remove excess horses within and around the HMA to low AML as expeditiously as feasible through one or more gathers, suppress population growth using PZP-22 and equip the horses with GPS tracking units.

Alternative 2 is the same as Alternative 1 with the exception that the released mares would be treated with GonaCon Equine instead of PZP.

The decision was to implement Alternatives 1 and 2.  The goal is to get the herd down to low AML and keep it there with fertility control.

The total authorized forage inside the HMA, neglecting wildlife, is 13,256 AUMs per year, as discussed previously.

At the low end of the AML, the 165 horses allowed by plan will receive 1,980 AUMs per year, about 15% of the forage in the HMA, sometimes referred to as ‘their food.’

If the vaccines are successful, forage assigned to the horses, corresponding to the difference between the low and high end of AML, could be shifted informally to the ranchers by extending the grazing season and/or allowing a higher stocking rate.

Curiously, the HMA has a Herd Management Area Plan (HMAP), which ratifies these lopsided resource allocations.

RELATED: SHOCKER: Sulphur Permittee Supports Wild Horse Roundup.

The writer holds all of the active AUMs in the Fairview Allotment, 73% of which is in the HMA.  It’s in the Improve category and accounts for about 30% of the forage assigned to livestock in that area.

Western Horse Watchers was unable to find any remarks from drilling and mining companies in the comments for the project.

In comment 8, the Campaign Against America’s Wild Horses opposes the roundup, while demanding in comment 16 that the BLM get rid of them with humane, reversible and vaccine-based fertility control, including PZP-22.

RELATED: Sulphur Allotment Confusion.

On the Maryland side of Assateague Island with td adventures.

Table 3.1 in the Final EA for resource enforcement actions shows nine allotments that intersect the HMA, with one out of service.

The map supplied with other supporting documents shows eight.

The Western Watersheds map, reproduced below, shows ten.

Bennion Spring, listed in the table, does not appear on the project map.  Buckhorn and Jackson Wash, which appear on the map, are not listed in the table.  North and South Pine Valley, which are listed in the table, are not shown on the map.

A BLM representative said Table 3.1 is correct and explained the differences as follows:

• Jackson Wash and Bennion Spring have been combined into one allotment but the change has not been reflected in the maps or databases
• Less then 1% of Buckhorn was inside the HMA and the allotment boundary now coincides with that of the HMA so there is no overlap
• North and South Pine Valley should have been shown on the project map but the error was not noticed when the EA was published

Stateline, Hamlin and Fairview are administered by the Fillmore Field Office and the others are managed by the Cedar City Field Office.

Allotment Master reports for the legacy arrangement [Fillmore | Cedar City] yielded the following data.  The percentage of Jackson Wash inside the HMA is based on an eyeball estimate from the WW map.  The other percentages were taken from Table 3.1.

Approximately 78% of the public acres in the allotments are in the Improve category, with the balance in Maintain.

The estimated forage assigned to livestock is 10,300 AUMs per year.  The allocation based on the data in Table 3.1 is 10,256 AUMs per year.

The 250 horses allowed by plan receive 3,000 AUMs per year.

If you thought the HMA was managed primarily for livestock, you’d be right.

A roundup is set begin this week.

RELATED: Sulphur Roundup Announced.

The incident began on January 11.  Gather stats through February 5:

• Target: Horses
• Type: Planned
• Method: Helicopter
• Captured: 1,683, up from 1,510 on Day 23
• Average daily take: 64.7
• Capture goal: 2,060
• Removal goal: 2,030
• Returned: 4, no change from Day 23
• Deaths: 15, up from 13 on Day 23
• Shipped: 1,554, up from 1,431 on Day 23

One horse was put down on Day 24 and another died on Day 26.  The death rate is 0.9%.

The cumulative total includes 714 stallions, 777 mares and 192 foals.

Youngsters represented 11.4% of the horses captured, consistent with a herd growth rate of six to seven percent per year, assuming a five percent death rate.  A growth rate of 20% per year is often used by land managers to predict herd sizes.

Of the adults, 47.9% were stallions and 52.1% were mares.

Body condition scores were not reported.

The location of the trap site within the Complex was not provided.

Day 26 ended with 110 unaccounted-for animals.

With an average daily take of 65, the capture goal should be achieved in another week.

The number of horses removed to date is 1,679.  Mares returned to the Complex will be treated with fertility control of unspecified type.

Other statistics:

• AML: 638 (across two HMAs, one WHT and one HA)
• Forage assigned to horses: 7,656 AUMs per year
• Pre-gather population: 3,244
• Forage liberated to date: 20,148 AUMs per year
• Water liberated to date: 16,790 gallons per day
• Forage assigned to livestock: 43,344 AUMs per year (estimated)
• Horses displaced from Complex by permitted grazing: 3,612
• True AML: 4,250
• Stocking rate at new AML: 3.5 wild horses per thousand acres
• Horses displaced from Complex by drilling and mining: Ask the advocates

RELATED: Pancake Roundup Day 23.

Buy a calendar from the advocates, as advertised in the current edition of Horse Tales.

RELATED: How Many Wild Horses Can the Pine Nut HA Support?

How can the AML represent the number of wild horses an area can support, as stated in the news release for the Cedar Mountain resource enforcement plan, when the BLM authorizes privately owned livestock equivalent to 4X AML in the same area?

The True AML would be 5X AML.

RELATED: Rule of Thumb for AMLs.

The resources have already been apportioned.  The project will decide how to enforce them.

Starting today, interested persons can identify issues, suggest alternatives and provide data that could be useful in preparing an environmental assessment that supports the decision-making process.

The proposed action will likely include, among other things, removal of wild horses to the low end of AML and one or more fertility control methods.

Comments must be submitted March 5, according to the news release.

The HMA covers 411,636 acres west of Salt Lake City.  The 390 horses allowed by plan require 4,680 AUMs per year.

The stocking rate allowed by plan is 0.9 horses per thousand acres.

The current population is thought to be around 790, excluding foals.

The HMA intersects four allotments according to the Western Watersheds map and appears to be 100% subject to permitted grazing.

The amount of forage assigned to livestock inside the HMA is not known.

The proposed roundup would occur no sooner than the fall of 2022.  The removal goal would be at least 600.

RELATED: New Resource Enforcement Plan for Cedar Mountain HMA?

Another reader responds to the January 27 column in the Reno Gazette Journal about the importance of roundups, only this time in the Sierra Nevada Ally, a nonprofit news organization based in Carson City.

RELATED: Criticize Livestock, Dart Horses.

The case was handled by the De Castroverde Law Group, which specializes in the areas of personal injury, criminal defense and immigration law, according to an article posted yesterday by Nevada Business.

RELATED: Pancake Judge Appointed by Barack Obama.

The new rules won’t keep more wild horses on the range but may keep more of them in off-range holding.

The rising cost of feed is another deterrent.

Changes to the incentive were authorized under a categorial exclusion.

Described as a “marketing tool” in the CX, the AIP is now subject to the policies and procedures of IM 2022-014.

The feedlot, sometimes referred to as a concentrated animal feeding operation (CAFO), covers 160 acres northeast of Fallon, NV and has a capacity of 3,200 wild horses and burros, according to the Determination of NEPA Adequacy signed on November 15.

The expansion will add 238 acres on three adjacent parcels owned by the contractor, increasing the capacity to 7,600 wild horses and burros.

Map 2 in the DNA shows the arrangement.

The project was not announced at the BLM news site.