Mustang Monday

On the eastern edge of the Kisatchie National Forest with C Plus Hikes.

Will the Real Wild Horse Advocates Please Stand Up?

Like the imposters on “To Tell the Truth,” an early TV game show, the advocates draw your attention to themselves and away from the truth.

Unlike the celebrity panel, today’s followers don’t realize they’ve been duped.

The look on Polly Bergen’s face at 0:23 tells the story.

Blue Wing Roundup, Day 19

The incident started on July 8. Results through July 26:

Scope: Blue Wing Complex
Target: Horses and burros
AML: 555 horses and 90 burros
Pre-gather population: 1,912 horses and 476 burros
Type: Planned
Method: Helicopter
Category: Cruel and costly (according to advocates)
Better way: Snuff out new life with PZP (according to advocates)
Goals
- Horses: Gather 1,373 and remove 1,333
- Burros: Gather 356 and remove 356
Captured
- Horses: 1,106, up from 1,061 on Day 17
- Burros: 360, no change from Day 17
Shipped
- Horses: 1,040, up from 923 on Day 17
- Burros: 353, no change from Day 17
Released
- Horses: 3, up from 2 on Day 17
- Burros: None
Deaths
- Horses: 25, up from 23 on Day 17
- Burros: 8, no change from Day 17
Average daily take
- Horses: 58.2
- Burros: 18.9
Unaccounted-for animals
- Horses: 38
- Burros: -1
Snippet from statute: It is the policy of Congress that wild free-roaming horses and burros shall be protected from capture, branding, harassment, or death

The figures above are based on the daily reports.

Horses

A stallion was released (or escaped) on Day 19.

A mare died of a broken neck on Day 19 and a stallion was dispatched for blindness in one eye, bringing the death rate to 2.3%.

The capture total includes 447 stallions, 460 mares and 199 foals.

Youngsters represented 18% of the animals gathered, consistent with a herd growth rate of 13% per year.

Of the adults, 49.3% were male and 50.7% were female, results that could be produced by a random process centered at 50% males / 50% females.

Body condition scores were not given.

Burros

The capture goal has been reached.

More burros were processed than caught, throwing the numbers out of balance.

Captured – Shipped – Released – Dead = 360 – 353 – 0 – 8 = -1

The death rate is 2.2%.

The capture total includes 186 jacks, 152 jennies and 22 foals.

Youngsters represented 6.1% of the animals gathered.

Of the adults, 55% were male and 45% were female.

General

The location of the trap site is not known. Five HMAs are involved.

The Complex is subject to permitted grazing. Resources liberated to date:

Forage: 15,396 AUMs per year
Water: 12,830 gallons per day

The June 3 schedule indicates that 40 mares will be treated with a fertility control pesticide but this is not acknowledged at the gather page.

There are no such plans for the burros.

The roundup supports three tenets of rangeland management.

RELATED: Blue Wing Roundup, Day 17.

Simulating the Swasey Gather Results in a Spreadsheet

The roundup took 57 stallions and 99 mares off the range, for a total of 156.

Yesterday your host suggested it would be very hard to reproduce those results by tossing coins.

The conclusion arises from a statistical calculation where p-bar = .5 and n = 156.

How to Compute p-chart Limits 02-10-22

The observed proportions of males and females fall outside these limits. That is, they don’t look like they came from a random process centered at 50% males / 50% females.

That statement could be tested by tossing a coin 156 times with many replications.

Another option is to simulate the tosses in an Excel spreadsheet using the built-in random number generator, counting the number of males and females in each replicate.

Enter 156 into cell C3. Then press F9 repeatedly to see the distribution of results.

Can you come up with 57 or less males and 99 or more females?

It may be possible but it won’t happen very frequently.

Your host was able to achieve 61 and 95.

Swasey Simulated Results 07-27-24

The North Lander roundup took 1,005 stallions and 1,101 mares off the range for a total of 2,106.

Western Horse Watchers was able to achieve those results exactly, meaning they look like they came from a random process centered at 50% males / 50% females.

North Lander Simulated Results 07-27-24

The spreadsheet limit is 5,000 adults.

You can also try this for the Blue Wing roundup, which has taken 447 stallions and 460 mares off the range as of July 26.

Reproducing the Swasey Gather Results

Toss a coin 156 times (the number of adults captured in the roundup) and see if you can get 57 or fewer heads and 99 or more tails or vice versa.

Betcha can’t do it.

The coin approximates a simple random process centered at 50% heads / 50% tails.

RELATED: Swasey Roundup Over.

TRNP Detained Stallion Placed into Private Care

A July 25 update of the original news release says park officials opted for a direct negotiated bid through GSA and the animal has now been transferred to its new owner.

Little Book Cliffs Decision Issued

The new management plan provides guidance for the Grand Junction Field Office to bring the size of the herd to within the appropriate management level of 90-150 wild horses and then regulate that population according to today’s news release.

The Decision Record authorizes the Proposed Action (Alternative B), discussed in Section 2.1.3 of the Final EA.

The DR and EA were copied to the project folder in ePlanning with other supporting documents.

The HMA was dropped from the FY24 roundup schedule in early June.

A preliminary schedule for FY25 has not been released.

Swasey Roundup Over

The incident concluded yesterday with 189 horses captured, 188 shipped, none released and one dead.

There were no unaccounted-for animals.

The capture and removal goals were 166 and 154, respectively.

The death rate was 0.5%.

The average daily take was 31.5.

The capture total included 57 stallions, 99 mares and 33 foals.

Youngsters represented 17.5% of the animals gathered, consistent with a herd growth rate of 12% per year.

Of the adults, 36.5% were male and 63.5% were female, results that don’t correspond to a simple random process centered at 50% males / 50% females.

The Swasey sex ratio may be skewed in favor of females, a common problem in herds treated with PZP, but the HMA does not appear in the first part of the June 3 roundup schedule for nonmotorized removal.

The HMA is subject to permitted grazing. The roundup liberated 2,268 AUMs per year, giving new hope to the poor ranchers.

The number of horses removed depends on the number returned.

The schedule indicates that up to 10 mares will be treated with GonaCon Equine and be returned to the range with up to 10 stallions.

A news release, if published, may clarify this.

Foal-Free Friday, Plausible Deniability Edition

The advocates are positioning themselves to avoid any responsibility for the destruction of the Salt River and Virginia Range herds, claiming they can apply as many doses of PZP as they want with no long-term effect on fertility.

They’ll go through the motions, applying more and more of the pesticide, although it’s really not necessary because the mares are sterile.

At that point the trend lines will go south even if the darting programs are shut off, just like the Maryland side of Assateague Island.

“We didn’t know, we thought it was harmless.”

They’re lying, of course.

The bureaucrats knew as well, that’s why they signed the agreements.

New Management Plan Targets Tassi-Gold Butte Burros?

The project description says the BLM and NPS propose to gather and remove wild burros from within and outside the Tassi-Gold Butte HMA, which was zeroed out in 1998.

The National Data Viewer shows a Gold Butte HMA and Tassi-Gold Butte HA.

The HMA lies within the Gold Butte National Monument and the HA lies within the Grand Canyon Parashant National Monument.

No documents were copied to the project folder.

Swasey Roundup, Day 5

The incident started on July 20. Results through July 24:

Scope: Swasey HMA
Target: Horses
AML: 100
Pre-gather population: 287
True AML: 749
Type: Planned
Method: Helicopter
Category: Cruel and costly (according to advocates)
Better way: Pummel mares with pesticide-laced darts (according to advocates)
Goals: Gather 166, remove 154
Captured: 157, up from 85 on Day 3
Shipped: 139, up from 71 on Day 3
Released: None
Deaths: None
Average daily take: 31.4
Unaccounted-for animals: 18

The figures above are based on the daily reports.

The capture total includes 50 stallions, 79 mares and 28 foals.

Youngsters represented 17.8% of the animals gathered.

Of the adults, 38.8% were male and 61.2% were female.

Body condition scores were not given.

The location of the trap site is not known.

The HMA is subject to permitted grazing. Resources liberated to date:

Forage: 1,884 AUMs per year
Water: 1,570 gallons per day

The June 3 schedule indicates that 10 mares will be treated with GonaCon Equine and be returned to the range but this is not discussed at the gather page.

The roundup supports three tenets of rangeland management.

RELATED: Swasey Roundup, Day 3.

Blue Wing Roundup, Day 17

The incident started on July 8. Results through July 24:

Scope: Blue Wing Complex
Target: Horses and burros
AML: 555 horses and 90 burros
Pre-gather population: 1,912 horses and 476 burros
Type: Planned
Method: Helicopter
Category: Cruel and costly (according to advocates)
Better way: Snuff out new life with PZP (according to advocates)
Goals
- Horses: Gather 1,373 and remove 1,333
- Burros: Gather 356 and remove 356
Captured
- Horses: 1,061, up from 917 on Day 15
- Burros: 360, no change from Day 15
Shipped
- Horses: 923, up from 764 on Day 15
- Burros: 353, no change from Day 15
Released
- Horses: 2, no change from Day 15
- Burros: None
Deaths
- Horses: 23, no change from Day 15
- Burros: 8, no change from Day 15
Average daily take
- Horses: 62.4
- Burros: 21.2
Unaccounted-for animals
- Horses: 113
- Burros: -1
Snippet from statute: It is the policy of Congress that wild free-roaming horses and burros shall be protected from capture, branding, harassment, or death

The figures above are based on the daily reports.

Horses

The death rate is 2.2%.

The capture total includes 428 stallions, 439 mares and 194 foals.

Youngsters represented 18.3% of the animals gathered, consistent with a herd growth rate of 13% per year.

Of the adults, 49.4% were male and 50.6% were female, results that could be produced by a simple random process centered at 50% males / 50% females.

Body condition scores were not given.

Burros

The capture goal has been reached.

More burros were processed than caught, throwing the numbers out of balance.

Captured – Shipped – Released – Dead = 360 – 353 – 0 – 8 = -1

The death rate is 2.2%.

The capture total includes 186 jacks, 152 jennies and 22 foals.

Youngsters represented 6.1% of the animals gathered.

Of the adults, 55% were male and 45% were female.

General

The location of the trap site is not known. Five HMAs are involved.

The Complex is subject to permitted grazing. Resources liberated to date:

Forage: 14,868 AUMs per year
Water: 12,390 gallons per day

The June 3 schedule indicates that 40 mares will be treated with a fertility control pesticide but this is not acknowledged at the gather page.

There are no such plans for the burros.

The roundup supports three tenets of rangeland management.

RELATED: Blue Wing Roundup, Day 15.

North Lander Roundup Ends

The incident concluded on July 23 with 2,577 horses captured, 2,560 shipped, none released and 16 dead.

There was one unaccounted-for animal.

2,577 – 2,560 – 0 – 16 = 1

The capture and removal goals were 2,766 and 2,716, respectively.

The death rate was 0.6%.

The average daily take was 112.

The capture total included 1,005 stallions, 1,101 mares and 471 foals.

Youngsters represented 18.3% of the horses gathered, consistent with a herd growth rate of 13% per year.

Of the adults, 47.7% were male and 52.3% were female, results that could be produced by a simple random process centered at 50% males / 50% females.

The Complex is subject to permitted grazing. The roundup liberated 30,924 AUMs per year, restoring the ranchers’ birthright.

The number of horses removed will depend on the number returned.

The June 3 schedule indicates that up to 20 mares will be treated with a fertility control pesticide of unspecified type and be returned to the range with up to 20 stallions.

The gather page will be updated when that process is complete.

RELATED: North Lander Roundup Pending.

UPDATE: The BLM news release confirms the use of pesticides but does not indicate the type, leaving open the possibility of another GonaCon crime scene.

BLM Winnemucca Seeks Wild Horse and Burro Specialist

The full-time position pays $63,091 to $98,305 per year according to an undated job listing on Indeed.

The successful candidate will prepare and implement documents such as Gather Plans and Herd Area Management Plans, organize the gathering and removal of wild horses and burros, and provide technical direction for wild horse and burro inventories and monitoring, allotment evaluations and management plans, and environmental assessments and impact statements.

You may have to join a public-sector union whereby you will be strongly encouraged to vote for liberals.

The description does not indicate if pesticide pushers and ranching sympathizers are preferred, but that would definitely be a plus.

Salt River Advocates Trying to Block Alpine Horse Removal?

The Salt River Wild Horse Darting Group and the Campaign Against America’s Wild Horses filed suit yesterday in U.S. District Court against the Johnson County Livestock Exchange, Rail Lazy H Contracting and Consulting, the United States Forest Service and United States Department of Agriculture according to a summary of the case at Justia.

A copy of the complaint was not attached.

They may be seeking a temporary restraining order to stop the removal of wild horses from the forest near Alpine, AZ.

Chincoteague Pony Swim Draws Large Crowd

Story by WAVY News.

Auction today, return swim tomorrow.

Best Way to Disarm the Wild Horse Protesters

Tell them you decided to get rid of the horses with pesticides instead of helicopters.

They’ll walk off the picket line and offer to help.

Tell them you’d like to use PZP and they’ll offer to apply it for free, up to and including the point of no return, when most of the mares are sterile.

VR Darting Injury 09-15-21