Assuming that foals are produced by a simple random process centered at 50% males / 50% females, a herd of 150 adults should contain between 37.75% and 62.25% females according to this relationship, where n = 150 and p-bar = .5.
Converting to integers, the number of female adults should range between 57 and 93.
Given that twins are very rare for horses, a herd of 150 adults should not be able to produce 100 foals unless something has occurred that invalidates the assumption of 50% males and 50% females.
Your host sent an email to the Chincoteague Volunteer Fire Company this morning seeking the current size of the herd and the number of adult males and females.
The number of foals offered at auction is going up
The number of colts returned to the island is going down
Hypothesis
The saltwater cowboys are skewing the sex ratio in favor of females, turning the island into a puppy mill for wild horses, to increase revenue from auctions
Snippet from statute: It is the policy of Congress that wild free-roaming horses and burros shall be protected from capture, branding, harassment, or death
Snippet from manual: To protect wild horses and burros from unauthorized capture, branding, harassment or death
The figures above are based on the daily reports. The sidebar at the gather page says 1,677 horses captured, including a mule, and 1,510 shipped.
The capture goal has been reached.
The sidebar indicates that two stallions were released but this is not documented in the daily reports.
A foal died of capture shock and a stallion was euthanized on Day 16.
A foal was dispatched on Day 17.
The death rate is 0.5%.
The capture total includes 601 stallions, 720 mares and 354 foals, not counting the mule.
The sidebar says 603/719/355.
Youngsters represented 21.1% of the animals gathered.
Of the adults, 45.5% were male and 54.5% were female.
The location of the trap site is not known.
The name of the contractor was not given.
There are no plans to treat any of the mares with fertility control pesticides and return them to the range.
The HMA is subject to permitted grazing. Resources liberated to date:
Forage: 20,100 AUMs per year
Water: 16,750 gallons per day
The map shows the Rock Springs HMAs before the RMP amendments, which were halted by an appeals court ruling on July 15. Click to enlarge.
New this year is an Adult In-Hand Division and a Mustang Only Horse Show, scheduled for August 22 according to a report by the Steamboat Pilot & Today.
Snippet from statute: It is the policy of Congress that wild free-roaming horses and burros shall be protected from capture, branding, harassment, or death
Snippet from manual: To protect wild horses and burros from unauthorized capture, branding, harassment or death
The figures above are based on the daily reports. More animals have been processed than trapped.
There is a discrepancy in the Day 51 results.
The capture goal has been reached according to the sidebar at the gather page.
One animal was dispatched on Day 51 for pre-existing conditions. The death rate is 0.6%.
The capture total includes 536 jacks, 470 jennies and 87 foals. The sidebar says 541/471/88.
Youngsters represented 8.0% of the animals gathered.
Of the adults, 53.3% were male and 46.7% were female.
The location of the trap site is not known.
The name of the contractor was not provided.
On Day 51, 22 jennies were treated with PZP, bringing the total to 100.
With 1,100 captured, 1,093 shipped and seven dead, according to the gather page, the number of animals available for release is zero. Where are the treated jennies?
The Complex is subject to permitted grazing. Resources liberated to date:
The pony swim guide indicates that roughly 50 adult ponies and their foals live at the southern end of the island while 100 adult ponies and their foals reside a little farther to north, putting the total at 150 adults and 60 to 70 foals born in the spring.
A story by KPNX News does not indicate if the herd would be nonreproducing but the answer is clear, given that the advocates have ruined the mares with PZP.
Snippet from statute: It is the policy of Congress that wild free-roaming horses and burros shall be protected from capture, branding, harassment, or death
Snippet from manual: To protect wild horses and burros from unauthorized capture, branding, harassment or death
The figures above are based on the daily reports. The sidebar at the gather page says 1,519 horses captured (including a mule) and 1,293 shipped.
A foal died of capture shock on Day 14. The death rate is 0.4%.
The capture total includes 543 stallions, 649 mares and 325 foals, not counting the mule.
The sidebar says 545/648/326.
Youngsters represented 21.4% of the animals gathered.
Of the adults, 45.6% were male and 54.4% were female.
The location of the trap site is not known.
The name of the contractor was not given.
There are no plans to treat any of the mares with fertility control pesticides and return them to the range.
The HMA is subject to permitted grazing. Resources liberated to date:
Forage: 18,204 AUMs per year
Water: 15,170 gallons per day
The map shows the Rock Springs HMAs before the RMP amendments, which were halted by an appeals court ruling on July 15. Click to enlarge.
The article says the BLM, in partnership with the Forest Service, planned and installed five virtual fence towers in a jointly managed grazing allotment in the Agua Fria National Monument but did not give the name of the allotment.
Another page describes the Vence virtual fencing system, which matches the description in the BLM article.
Presumably, JH Cattle will benefit from the new equipment, but who paid for it?
The allotment offers 4,572 AUMs on 29,851 public acres, equivalent to 12.8 wild horses per thousand public acres.
Your faithful public servants claim that public lands in the western U.S. can only support one wild horse per thousand acres (25,500 animals on 25.6 million acres).
The Proposed Action would also increase the grazing season by a factor of two.
Table 1 in the Draft EA, developed with no public input, summarizes the changes.
The project folder also contains an aerial image of the allotment.
The topic of increased forage usually appears in planning documents for wild horse roundups.
The customary response is that it can’t be accomplished through a wild horse gather decision and is only possible if the agency first revises the land-use plan to reallocate forage.