Can the Sulphur Percentage of Foals Be Attributed to Chance?

The gather page for Day 5 of the roundup indicates zero foals captured out of 299.

Sulphur Roundup Results Day 5 02-13-22

If the herd is growing at a rate of 20% per year, as claimed by the bureaucrats and ranchers, it should contain around 25% foals, allowing for a 5% death rate.

Is the observed percentage of foals sufficiently far from the expected percentage to indicate a problem or should it be written off to chance?

The question can only be answered by calculation, using basic statistical formulas.

How to Compute p-chart Limits 02-10-22

The expected range of variation for a simple random process centered at p-bar = .25, with samples of n = 299, is .175 to .325.  Every horse in the sample is a foal or it is not.

The observed percentage of foals is outside this range so the result cannot be attributed to chance.

An investigation should be able to link the observed value with one or more assignable causes, such as a fertility control program.

RELATED: Youngsters Hard to Find at Sulphur HMA.

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