Alternative C, a fully contracepted herd that dies off, is no longer on the table but it could still become a reality. Here’s how.
The herd needs to be reduced from 200 to 60 or less according to the story by AP News.
Motorized removal will draw the same negative reaction as the original plan.
The advocates have had some success in convincing the public that attrition by pesticides is better than attrition by helicopters, and nobody talks about getting rid of wild horses more than they do, so let’s see what would happen if the Park Service turned to them for advice.
The initial population is 200 and the goal is 60.
Assume a six percent death rate and zero percent birth rate.
Let x = number of years to achieve goal by nonmotorized removal.
The advocates will need almost 20 years to achieve the goal.
Actually, they only need five years. The mares will be sterile after that and the herd will implode, just like Assateague Island.
The assumption of a constant death rate is probably not valid.
With no new foals hitting the ground, the average age of the herd will increase, along with the death rate, so the goal could be achieved sooner than expected.
RELATED: TRNP Decision Offers Mixed News to Wild Horse Advocates.
Western Horse Watchers Association 