Advocates with the Campaign Against America’s Wild Horses will need a zero percent birth rate and six percent death rate for 30 consecutive years to bring the herd of 3,500 wild horses close to the target of 500.
Future population = 3,500 * .94 ^ 30 = 547
Most of the mares will be sterile after five consecutive years, the current age of the program, so the field work can taper off and the herd will still implode.
The assumption of a constant death rate is probably not valid.
The average age of the herd is increasing, along with the death rate, because few if any new foals are hitting the ground, so the end may come sooner than expected.
The Virginia Range was easily carrying ten wild horses per thousand acres, which causes great embarrassment to the bureaucrats and ranchers, who claim the high desert can only support one wild horse per thousand acres (27,000 animals on 27 million acres).
Instead of pushing back against the lies, the advocates ratify and reinforce them through their participation in the removals.
Western Horse Watchers Association 